Will SP architectures be robust enough for the coming wave?

In just a short period of time, video has taken on a new form as a pervasive entertainment medium, migrating from our living rooms, out to the Internet, and now back again. The combination of new video enabled consumer devices, nearly instant worldwide availability, and ubiquitous broadband access has whet the viewer's appetite for the ability to access video, at any time and on any screen. In order to meet this growing demand, SPs will need to be able to provide the appropriate amount of bandwidth necessary to ensure a quality viewing experience. At the same time, SPs are being challenged to find new ways to increase their relevance in a video market that may contain unfamiliar territory for them.

Consumer viewing patterns, and the bandwidth requirements to support them, are changing rapidly and drastically. As IDC points out below, in the United States, average downstream bandwidth has grown significantly over the course of only two years.

Much of this US bandwidth growth has been as a result of the increase in popularity of Internet-based video and streaming media. As digital media's popularity growth continues, increases in the number and duration of simultaneous connections will have an impact on the access bandwidth. While these applications can run fairly well in limited-bandwidth environments, the SP's access architecture must be robust enough to handle the projected traffic. That access traffic load will be increasing drastically as wireline SPs bundle High Definition IPTV as part of their quad play service offerings.

In order to provide the amount of bandwidth required for HD-based videos, interactive gaming, and other bandwidth-intensive applications, wireline SPs worldwide are working to ensure the right technology is in place. While SP's may build out their broadband architectures using a variety of access methods, many are using a Fiber to the Home (FTTH) strategy incorporating Passive Optical Network (PON) technology. PON's three main standards have differing transmission characteristics, including differences in the amount of shared bandwidth available to end users.

A recent ABI Research report indicates a significant worldwide increase in GPON subscribers worldwide, relative to BPON and EPON, as a direct result of the greater amount of bandwidth available. From a global theater perspective, the Asia Pacific region currently has the greatest PON subscriber penetration, based upon a regional focus on providing broadband to the home, driven mainly by China, Japan, India, and South Korea. North America is expected to remain relatively consistent at 13-18% of total PON subscribers, as Europe begins to emerge in the CY08 timeframe. So, I wonder, is John Chambers correct once again and we are in the beginning of yet another explotion of Internet usage?